Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $14,992$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(302 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.8\) days)
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $253$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(-9.09 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{381.0}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 163.7)}}\) (asimptote \(381.0\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,002$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $50,378$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(2.98 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,904.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(35,904.8\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,050$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(2.91 \times 10^{-17} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,966.6}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,966.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,828$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $299,506$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(3.2 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{251,309.2}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 46.3)}}\) (asimptote \(251,309.2\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,724$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(2.76 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,836.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 46.9)}}\) (asimptote \(34,836.9\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $45,079$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,856,884$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(5.8 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,761,896.5}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 145.7)}}\) (asimptote \(8,761,896.5\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $199,865$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(4.21 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(79.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{187,820.8}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 78.9)}}\) (asimptote \(187,820.8\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,041,070$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $401,122$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(9.83 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(96.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{322,373.8}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 61.8)}}\) (asimptote \(322,373.8\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $41,877$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.71 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(121.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,848.5}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(40,848.5\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $357,017$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $88,237$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.5 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(72.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,899.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 96.2)}}\) (asimptote \(86,899.8\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,865$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(2.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(108.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,749.5}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 51.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,749.5\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $82,372$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $275,560$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{218,128.4}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 45.0)}}\) (asimptote \(218,128.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,390$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(4.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(134.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,065.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,065.3\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,514$ on 2020-09-21