Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,992$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(302 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.8\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $253$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(-9.09 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{381.0}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 163.7)}}\) (asimptote \(381.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,002$ on 2020-09-21

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $50,378$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.98 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,904.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(35,904.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,050$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.91 \times 10^{-17} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,966.6}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,966.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,828$ on 2020-09-21

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $299,506$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(3.2 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{251,309.2}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 46.3)}}\) (asimptote \(251,309.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,724$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.76 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,836.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 46.9)}}\) (asimptote \(34,836.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $45,079$ on 2020-09-21

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,856,884$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(5.8 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,761,896.5}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 145.7)}}\) (asimptote \(8,761,896.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $199,865$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(4.21 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(79.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{187,820.8}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 78.9)}}\) (asimptote \(187,820.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,041,070$ on 2020-09-21

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $401,122$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(9.83 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(96.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{322,373.8}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 61.8)}}\) (asimptote \(322,373.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $41,877$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.71 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(121.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,848.5}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(40,848.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $357,017$ on 2020-09-21

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $88,237$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.5 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(72.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,899.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 96.2)}}\) (asimptote \(86,899.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,865$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(108.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,749.5}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 51.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,749.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $82,372$ on 2020-09-21

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $275,560$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{218,128.4}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 45.0)}}\) (asimptote \(218,128.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,390$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(4.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(134.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,065.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,065.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,514$ on 2020-09-21

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Singapore recovered 98%
New Zealand recovered 93%
Mauritania recovered 92%
Cote d'Ivoire recovered 91%
Zambia recovered 90%
Kazakhstan recovered 89%
Egypt recovered 89%
Suriname recovered 88%
Chile recovered 83%
Vietnam recovered 82%
Sri Lanka recovered 80%
Australia recovered 79%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 79%
Azerbaijan recovered 78%
Saudi Arabia recovered 77%
Korea, South recovered 70%
Haiti recovered 62%
Japan recovered 60%
El Salvador recovered 56%
Maldives recovered 51%
Kuwait recovered 47%
Bolivia recovered 46%
Mexico recovered 43%
Belize recovered 37%
Malawi recovered 35%
Senegal recovered 33%
Bangladesh recovered 25%
Rwanda recovered 19%
Venezuela recovered 17%
Panama recovered 13%
Honduras recovered 5%

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,606$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.64 \times 10^{-19} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55,241.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 116.5)}}\) (asimptote \(55,241.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(-6.39 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.8}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(26.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $338$ on 2020-09-21

New Zealand⮸

Population $4,822,233$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,815$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(4.08 \times 10^{-17} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,575.5}{1 + 10^{-0.083 (t - 27.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,575.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $25$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(8.87 \times 10^{-17} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22.2}{1 + 10^{-0.086 (t - 21.4)}}\) (asimptote \(22.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-09-21

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,384$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(822 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,965.6}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 91.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,965.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $161$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(28.3 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{157.6}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 77.1)}}\) (asimptote \(157.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $246$ on 2020-09-21

Cote d'Ivoire⮸

Population $26,378,274$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $19,327$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,022.4}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 99.2)}}\) (asimptote \(19,022.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $120$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(21.4 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 83.6)}}\) (asimptote \(126.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $577$ on 2020-09-21